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人民币汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响分析

An Analysis about the Change of RMB Exchange Rate Effects on Horticultural Products Export of China

作者: 专业:国际贸易学 导师:祁春节 年度:2010 学位:硕士  院校: 华中农业大学

Keywords

exchange rate of RMB, horticultural products, export, policy proposals

        园艺产品作为中国传统的出口创汇农产品之一,在中国农产品贸易中占有重要地位。在全球经济一体化以及科技进步的背景下,伴随着对外贸易的高速发展,中国的园艺产品出口势头强劲。然而,随着国际农产品市场的进一步开放以及国际园艺产品市场竞争的日益加剧,各国园艺产品的出口贸易也越来越受到其他国家的影响。众所周知,汇率作为一种经济杠杆,对一个国家和地区对外贸易的发展有着重大影响,因此各国汇率制度的选择必将影响国际间双边贸易的流量及流向。改革开放以后,随着中国经济与世界经济的逐步接轨,人民币汇率与中国对外贸易发展之间的关系越来越紧密,人民币汇率制度变迁带来的汇率变动与产品出口之间的关系问题逐渐进入学者的研究领域。那么人民币汇率变动对中国园艺产品的出口存在怎样的影响,是否如传统的汇率理论所持的汇率贬值促进出口,升值抑制出口的观点一致?这就构成本文所要研究的问题。本文的研究思路为:在对中国园艺产品生产及出口现状进行评价的基础上,运用图表分析工具将汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响程度进行描述性分析。在此基础上,以人民币汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响作为核心问题,构建人民币实际有效汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口总额影响的实证模型,以分析实际有效汇率变动对园艺产品出口的影响。进一步,基于面板数据分析方法,构建人民币双边实际汇率变动对园艺产品分国别出口影响的贸易引力模型,以分析双边实际汇率变动在国家间园艺产品贸易的影响。最后在结合前文分析的基础上提出促进中国园艺产品出口的对策建议。本文除第一章引言和第五章结论与政策含义外,主要研究内容共分为三章:第二章介绍了中国汇率制度的演进过程和现状,以及中国园艺产品的特征和出口现状,同时就汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响程度进行了描述性分析。结果显示,人民币升值不利于园艺产品的出口,贬值有利于园艺产品的出口。从1994年1月1日人民币汇率并轨,人民币的大幅贬值促进了中国园艺产品出口的快速增长,当年出口额较1993年增长了21.18%。此后,人民币小幅度的升值,与此同时,园艺产品的出口额虽然仍呈增长的趋势,但是增速放缓。亚洲金融危机爆发后,人民币坚持不贬值,因此中国的园艺产品出口受到一定的影响,经历了一段时间的负增长。2005年7月至今,人民币实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节的、有管理的浮动汇率制度,同时人民币兑美元汇率升值2%。此后,汇率呈持续升值态势,这削弱了出口产品的国际竞争力,抑制了出口企业的出口积极性,对中国园艺产品的出口有一定的影响,2005年中国园艺产品出口增速放缓。第三章构建了一个基于若干假设条件的宏观层面的园艺产品出口需求模型,并在这一理论模型的基础上构建以中国园艺产品出口额为因变量、以人民币实际有效汇率及外国消费需求为自变量的实证模型。研究方法采用基于时间序列的协整分析,运用单位根检验确定时间序列的平稳性,来判断对这三个时间序列进行回归是否会因为存在非平稳时间序列而出现谬误回归现象,以及采用哪种回归分析方法构建实证模型,结果表明园艺产品出口、国外消费需求两个变量为水平平稳时间序列,人民币实际有效汇率为含有结构突变的水平平稳时间序列,因此对上述三个变量进行基于结构突变的OLS回归分析。实证结果证明了理论模型的正确性,同时发现,人民币实际有效汇率对中国园艺产品出口存在负效应,影响系数为-0.4346,表明在其他条件不变的情况下,当人民币实际有效汇率指数增加1%,则中国园艺产品的出口额将减少0.4346%。第四章引入贸易引力模型,采用基于面板数据的分析方法,具体考察双边实际汇率变动对中国及其10个主要贸易伙伴国园艺产品贸易的影响,并对实证结果展开进一步讨论。实证结果表明:双边实际汇率对中国园艺产品的出口存在正的影响,系数为1.358659,说明在其他条件不变的情况下,当人民币对他国货币每贬值1%,则中国园艺产品的出口额增加约1.36%。因此,不可低估人民币汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响作用,政府的政策调整非常必要。本文认为,仅仅从园艺产品出口的角度来看,人民币汇率持续升值不利于园艺产品出口的增加,政府的汇率政策应考虑人民币适当贬值。然而由于园艺产品的出口占中国贸易总额的比重较小,同时汇率变动并不是中国园艺产品出口的最主要影响因素;此外,人民币汇率变动对各个贸易伙伴国的影响也存在差异,因此贸然的干预人民币汇率,反而可能引起相关贸易伙伴国的“贬值竞赛”,导致人民币相对他国升值更快。同时贬值还有可能激起贸易伙伴国的贸易报复政策,推动贸易保护主义抬头,反而抑制包括园艺产品在内的各类产品的出口,扰乱中国经济发展。目前应维持人民币汇率的相对稳定,打破汇率升值预期,避免国际游资大量进入中国金融市场,扰乱中国经济发展。与此同时着力从农业政策入手,考虑通过采取一系列合理的贸易政策来促进园艺产品出口增长。
    As one of the sources of China’s traditional foreign exchange reserves of agr-products, horticultural products take a notable place in international trade of China’s agr-products. Under the context of the global integration as well as the scientific and technological progress, the values of horticultural export in China grow fast along with the rapid development of international trade. With the further opening of international markets for agr-products as well as the increasing competition gradually in international horticultural markets, however, horticultural exports in each country are affected more by the partners. As we all known, the exchange rate has a significant effects to the international trade for a country and region when it to be used as an economic lever. Therefore, the choice of the national exchange rate regime is bound to affect the international trade and flows. After the reform and opening up in China, accompany with the gradual integration between China’s economy to world, the changes of RMB exchange rate influence more to the international trade of China, thence, the relationship between the choice of RMB exchange rate regime with international trade enter academic fields gradually.Considering that, what kind of impact the change of RMB exchange rate on China’s horticultural export? Does it be the same with the traditional theory, which holds that the depreciation of RMB has a promotion to export? These constitute the main issues in this paper.The whole paper goes as follow:first, analyzed the status of China’s production and export of horticultural products; second, described the movement of exchange rate as well as the influence to the horticultural export; third, let the impact between exchange rate with horticultural export be the core issue, and on the basis of all above, we developed an empirical model to analyze the impact RMB real effective exchange rate moved on horticultural export. After that, based on panel data analysis methods, we built a trade gravity model to analyze the effect the bilateral real exchange rate changed on horticultural export. At last, considering the analysis above, we gave the policy proposals to promote the export of horticultural products.In addition to Chapter 1 Introduction and Chapter 5 conclusions and policy implications, the main content of this paper is divided into three Chapters.Chapter 2 described the evolution of China’s exchange rate system and current status, as well as the status and characteristics of the horticultural export in China. The results showed that the appreciation of RMB would restrain horticultural export, but the devaluation of RMB would increase horticultural export. From Jan 1,1994, the sharp devaluation of RMB made a rapid increase of horticultural export,21.18% of growth compared with Dec 31,1993. Since then, RMB had a tiny appreciation, along with this, the acceleration of horticultural export slowed down despite of the values of export still on rise. After the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis, RMB insisted on not devaluing, which led to the decrease of horticultural export. From July 2005 to now, RMB began with a new reform, at the same time, appreciated 2%. Since then, the exchange rate sustained appreciation trend, which weakened the international competitiveness of export products. Therefore, the acceleration of horticultural export slowed down from 2005.Chapter 3 developed a macro-lever theoretical model of horticultural products which based on a sum of assumptions. Further we built an export demand function that explained the impacts exchange rate change of RMB on China’s horticultural export. Methods based on time series cointegration, using unit root test to determine whether these three time series were stationary stochastic process, in order to make sure which kind of models to be used to regress. The results showed that series of horticultural export and GDP were both 1(0), series of REER was 1(0) with a structural break, so we put them one empirical model with the structural break dummy variables. Finally, the empirical results confirmed the validity of the theoretical model, and the real effective exchange rate change had a negative effect on China’s horticultural export. The coefficient was-0.4346, which meant when REER had increased by 1%, the export of China’s horticultural products would decreased by 0.4346%.Chapter 4 based on panel data analysis, we developed a trade gravity model to measure the effects that the changes of bilateral real exchange rate on China’s horticultural export with its 10 main partners. The empirical results showed that:the effects the bilateral real exchange rate changed on horticultural export in positive with the influence coefficient of 1.358659, which meant that when the devaluation of RMB was 1%, the increase of horticultural export was 1.36%.Therefore, the effects of RMB exchange rate change on China’s horticultural export can not be underestimated, as well as necessary government’s policy adjustment. This paper argued that, just considering with the export of horticultural products, the continuously appreciation of RMB exchange rate had a disadvantageous effect on the increase of export, the policy of exchange rate should consider the appropriate depreciation of RMB. However, because of the share of horticultural export against the total exports of China was relatively small, the effect of RMB exchange rate changed on the various trading partners’horticultural export was also different, therefore, arbitrarily letting RMB rise will lead to a "competition of depreciation" in other contry, as well as make a raletive faster appreciation. At the same time, devaluation might also provoke trade retaliation policy in partners, which inhibited the export of horticultural products however. Currently, the exchange rate of China should remain stable relatively, in order to break to the appreciation of RMB. At the same time, the government’s policy should focus on the side of agr-products export to promote the growth of horticultural export by adjusting the trade policies.
        

人民币汇率变动对中国园艺产品出口的影响分析

目录4-6
图表目录6-7
摘要7-9
ABSTRACT9-11
1 引言12-25
    1.1 选题的目的与意义12-14
        1.1.1 问题的提出12-14
        1.1.2 研究的目的和意义14
    1.2 文中重要概念的界定14-17
        1.2.1 汇率及实际有效汇率、双边实际汇率14-16
        1.2.2 园艺产品16-17
    1.3 国内外研究综述17-21
        1.3.1 汇率变动影响出口的传统理论17-18
        1.3.2 国内外研究现状述评18-20
        1.3.3 对研究现状的分析述评20-21
    1.4 研究方法、结构安排和技术路线21-24
        1.4.1 研究方法21-22
        1.4.2 论文结构安排及技术路线22-24
    1.5 创新点与不足之处24-25
        1.5.1 创新点24
        1.5.2 不足之处24-25
2 人民币汇率变动与园艺产品出口状况回顾25-38
    2.1 中国园艺产业及出口贸易的总体现状分析25-30
        2.1.1 中国园艺产业现状分析25-27
        2.1.2 中国园艺产品出口总体现状分析27-30
    2.2 中国园艺产品出口分国别的现状分析30-34
        2.2.1 与日本的贸易现状30-31
        2.2.2 与美国的贸易现状31-32
        2.2.3 与俄罗斯的贸易现状32-34
    2.3 人民币汇率制度演进过程及其对园艺产品出口的影响分析34-38
        2.3.1 1994年-2005年人民币汇率并轨,实行有管理的浮动汇率制度34-36
        2.3.2 2005年7月至今,实行参考一篮子货币的有管理的浮动汇率制度36-38
3 实际有效汇率变动对园艺产品出口的影响分析38-48
    3.1 简要理论回顾38
    3.2 理论模型设定基本假设38-41
    3.3 数据来源41
    3.4 单位根检验41-44
    3.5 结构突变的单位根检验44-46
    3.6 含结构突变的OLS回归分析46-47
    3.7 估计结果初步分析47-48
4 双边实际汇率变动对园艺产品出口的影响——基于引力模型分析48-56
    4.1 贸易引力模型的理论基础48
    4.2 面板数据分析48-54
        4.2.1 变量数据来源及预期符号48-51
        4.2.2 模型形式设定检验51-53
        4.2.3 模型估计及结果分析53-54
    4.3 结论与讨论54-56
5 结论与政策建议56-59
    5.1 主要结论56-57
    5.2 对策建议57-59
参考文献59-62
附录一 结构突变的单位根检验临界值表62-63
附录二 面板数据分析的SAS程序63-64
附录三 硕士期间参与科研项目及发表论文情况64-65
致谢65
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