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社会责任信息披露与分析师盈利预测

Information Disclosure of Social Responsibility and Analysts Earnings Predict

作者: 专业:会计学 导师:尹开国 年度:2015 学位:硕士  院校: 三峡大学

Keywords

social responsibility report, information disclosure quality, analystearnings forecast

        证券分析师作为连接上市公司与外部投资者的重要信息中介,其盈利预测质量的高低对降低信息不对称,提高资本市场效率具有重要作用,而所获取的公司信息质量是影响其正确分析判断的重要因素。随着经济社会的发展,在不确定性日益加剧的市场环境下,传统的财务信息披露仅是对企业历史经营活动信息的反映,缺乏前瞻性,不能充分反映企业面临的机会和风险,而以社会责任信息为主体的非财务信息披露则恰好能够弥补财务信息在前瞻性信息方面的不足。现有研究发现,上市公司社会责任报告的披露能够在一定程度上提高证券分析师的预测精度,但他们仅仅研究了社会责任报告披露与否对证券分析师预测行为的影响,没有关注社会责任信息披露质量的提升是否能改善证券分析师的盈利预测结果。而社会责任信息披露质量的高低反映了上市公司对外传递信息的多少和不确定性,会影响分析师搜集和评估信息的成本收益,从而影响证券分析师的预测行为。本文以我国2010-2013年发布社会责任报告的非金融业A股上市公司为研究样本,以润灵环球责任评级(RKS)发布的社会责任报告评级得分作为社会责任信息披露质量的代理变量,通过构建面板数据模型实证检验了我国当前证券市场环境下社会责任信息披露质量对证券分析师关注度和盈利预测准确度的影响。研究结果表明,在控制了相关潜在干扰因素后,社会责任信息披露质量能显著提升证券分析师预测意愿,增加证券分析师关注度,对证券分析师盈利预测准确度也存在显著正向影响。进一步的稳健性检验也支持了上述结论。本文的研究结论一方面丰富和拓展了我国信息披露质量与分析师盈利预测领域的研究成果,有助于理论界和实务界更全面地认识证券分析师盈利预测的影响因素;另一方面增进了人们对资本市场上社会责任信息有用性的认识,对完善企业社会责任信息披露政策和市场监督机构的规制行为具有一定的启示意义。
    Securities analysts as one of the important information intermediaries in connectinglisted companies with external investors, theirs’ profit forecast quality of high and lowplays an important role on reducing the information asymmetry and improving theefficiency of capital market.But the company acquired information quality is the importantfactors that influence the securities analysts’ correct analysis judgment. With thedevelopment of society and economy, under the market environment of uncertaintyincreasing, the traditional accounting information disclosure is only the reflection ofenterprise history business activities information, lack of forward-looking, and cannot fullyreflect the enterprise facing the opportunities and risk. However, the social responsibilityinformation regarded as the main body of non-financial information disclosure is just tomake up for the lack of financial information in forward-looking information. Existingstudies have found that the disclosure of the listed company social responsibility report canimprove the prediction precision of the securities analyst to a certain extent, but they onlystudied the social responsibility report disclosure or not affect analysts predict behavior,without concern about whether social responsibility information disclosure quality canimprove results of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Social responsibility information disclosurequality which reflects how much information listed companies convey and uncertainty, willaffect the analyst to collect and assess the cost benefit of information, thus affecting theanalysts predict behavior.Based on the release social responsibility report from2010to2013in China’snon-financial A-share listed companies as research samples, regarding social responsibilityreport rating score released by the Rankins CSR Ratings (RKS) as proxy variable of socialresponsibility information disclosure quality, by constructing panel data model, this paperempirically examine the effect of social responsibility information disclosure quality onanalyst earnings forecast accuracy under the present securities market environment. Theresearch results show that after controlling for potential interference factors related, thesocial responsibility information disclosure quality can significantly improve analystspredict will, increase an analyst concern, and have significantly positive effect on theanalyst earnings forecasts accuracy. Further robustness test also supports this conclusion.The research conclusion of this article on the one hand, enrich and expand theresearch achievements in the field of information disclosure quality in our country and analyst earnings forecasts, and contribute to theory and practice having a morecomprehensive understanding of securities analyst earnings forecast affecting factors; Onthe other hand enhance the people on the understanding of the social responsibilityinformation usefulness to the capital market, and have the certain enlightenmentsignificance to improve corporate social responsibility information disclosure policies andmarket supervision institutions regulating behavior.
        

社会责任信息披露与分析师盈利预测

内容摘要4-5
Abstract5-6
1 引言8-11
    1.1 研究背景与研究意义8-9
    1.2 研究思路与研究方法9-10
    1.3 研究内容与研究创新10-11
2 文献回顾11-18
    2.1 整体信息披露与分析师盈利预测11-12
    2.2 财务信息披露与分析师盈利预测12-14
    2.3 非财务信息披露与分析师盈利预测14-16
    2.4 小结16-18
3 理论分析与研究假设18-20
    3.1 社会责任信息披露与分析师关注度18-19
    3.2 社会责任信息披露与分析师盈利预测准确度19-20
4 研究设计20-28
    4.1 样本选择与数据来源20-21
    4.2 变量定义21-26
    4.3 研究方法26-28
5 实证结果与分析28-35
    5.1 描述性统计28
    5.2 Pearson 相关性分析28-29
    5.3 多元回归分析29-33
    5.4 稳健性检验33-35
6 研究结论与展望35-37
    6.1 研究结论与启示35
    6.2 研究局限与展望35-37
参考文献37-44
后记44-46
附录:攻读硕士学位期间发表的部分学术论著46
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